NFL Training Camps Put Quarterback Battles in Sportsbooks’ Spotlight

NFL Training Camps Put Quarterback Battles in Sportsbooks’ Spotlight

As training camps begin this week, Las Vegas sportsbooks are returning their focus to the National Football League (NFL) following the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup.

Veterans begin reporting for a few clubs on Wednesday (July 22), while some teams start with rookie arrivals and physicals tomorrow (July 20). All 32 NFL teams will be getting ready for the 2026 season by the end of the week, though the precise reporting schedule differs every franchise.

 

Sportsbooks Turn to the NFL

Oddsmakers aren't interested in highlight-reel films or glowing player reports at this time of year. They are searching for data that actually alters a team's perspective: Which athletes are playing for the first team? Is a rookie practicing with the starting lineup, particularly at the tight end, running back, and quarterback positions? At quarterback, who gets the majority of the snaps? 

Expectations can be altered by a new coaching staff, like as the Vegas Raiders under Gary Kubiak. Is the defensive plan evolving? Will the running game be more important to them? 

These developments have the potential to affect Week 1 betting lines, season win totals, and futures odds.

 

Priority is given to quarterback battles

The most market movement is being driven by quarterback contests, according to Jamey Pileggi, Risk Manager at Circa Sports in Las Vegas.

In Cleveland, for example, veteran Deshaun Watson is competing against sophomore Shedeur Sanders for the Browns' position after recovering from an Achilles injury. This week, both quarterbacks are working out with skill players. The two are in fierce competition, with Sanders boasting about his offseason gains.

“Quarterback battles are the ones that really move game lines, futures markets above anything else,” said Pileggi. “The one that is most intriguing to me is in Minnesota with the Vikings. I value Kyler Murray as a significant upgrade to JJ McCarthy”.

 

Newcomers May Change Markets

Three crucial head-to-head camp matches are being monitored by Caesars Sportsbook Head of Football Joey Feazel: Watson vs. Sanders in Cleveland, Murray vs. McCarthy in Minnesota, and Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix with the Falcons.

“Though these competitions likely won’t shift futures odds unless the winners deliver truly dominant performances during their reps,” said Feazel. “Beyond those head-to-head battles, we are also closely monitoring rookies Fernando Mendoza [Raiders] and Carson Beck [Arizona Cardinals]. While neither is projected to start in Week 1, strong preseason performances could put current starters Kirk Cousins [Raiders] and Jacoby Brissett [Cardinals] on a very short leash.

“If these rookies force their way onto the field early, they could dramatically elevate the late-season ceiling for both franchises and heavily impact the Offensive Rookie of the Year market,” Feazel added.

 

Injury News Travels Fast

Naturally, oddsmakers also pay close attention to injuries because a big injury can instantly change the price of a Super Bowl.

“Injury news is what prompts us to move odds markets the fastest in training camp,” said Pileggi. “It’s immediate. Once a tweet goes out from a beat reporter that a high-profile QB might miss some regular-season time, we’ll start seeing bets against that team immediately if we don’t see it right away.”

According to Pileggi, bettors are currently "in love" with the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams.

“Rams are obviously very good, potentially adding Aaron Donald if he opts out of retirement, but they’re still in what I believe is the toughest division in the NFL,” he said. “We have them less than 5/1 at the moment to win the championship. Bettors seem to be forgetting the Seahawks and really riding that Super Bowl hangover narrative because there’s been very little interest in them.”

 

Bettors Support the Bengals and Rams

That is confirmed by a cursory look at the BetMGM lines. The Rams have had the most line shift, going from -285 to -500 (open to current) to qualify for the NFL playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens (-350 to -375), Bengals (-130 to -175), Houston Texans (-140 to -170), and Dallas Cowboys (+110 to +100) are next.

The Raiders (+550), New York Giants (+260), and Chicago Bears (+100) are the clubs who are most likely to make the playoffs (tickets). The Detroit Lions (-220), New York Jets (+800), and Raiders (+500) are in the lead financially. The Lions (+180) and Pittsburgh Steelers (-220) are the most likely teams to miss the playoffs in terms of tickets and money, respectively.

 

BetMGM Markets Display Change

The Giants (7.5), Raiders (5.5), and Denver Broncos (9.5) are the most popular over bets by ticket count in BetMGM's NFL season win totals market. The Vikings (8.5), Broncos (9.5), and Lions (10.5) top in terms of money wagered.

The Miami Dolphins (4.5), New England Patriots (9.5), and Green Bay Packers (9.5) are the clubs with the highest ticket counts on the under side. The Cardinals (3.5), Dolphins (4.5), and Chicago Bears (9.5) are the teams that gamblers are supporting in terms of money wagered.

Feazel stated at Caesars Sportsbook that the Bears, led by quarterback Caleb Williams, are a squad where the market seems to be overreacting as the NFL begins a new season.

 

Bears Overvalued, Cowboys Overlooked

“While head coach Ben Johnson has clearly transformed the team’s culture, Williams still struggled at times with passing accuracy throughout the year,” he said. “However, the betting public loves his style and ‘Houdini-like’ plays, which fueled their playoff run last year.”

On the undervalued side, the Cowboys look like a prime target, he added.

“Dallas had a tremendous offseason, directly addressing their defensive woes from a year ago,” said Feazel. “With Brian Schottenheimer entering year two of his system, the Cowboys have the continuity and defensive upgrades necessary to compete for a division title in the NFC East.”